Vila Novavs
America Mineiro
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 9/18/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vila Nova 1-0 America Mineiro, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vila Nova 1-0 America Mineiro
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 64.4% | 71.4% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.3% | 19.6% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 7.55 | 12.3% | 9.0% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Projected Score
Vila Nova 1–0 America Mineiro
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
71.4%
Model confidence
71.4%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Vila NovaDWLWD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
America MineiroLWLWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Vila NovaAmerica Mineiro
47.6Attack25.0
63.1Defence42.9
57.1Form20.2
56.8Power32.0
1.89xG0.47