UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League
Thursday, 16 July 2026Last updated 10:06
Vikingur Gota

Vikingur Gota

Home
DL
22
Full time
Stjarnan

Stjarnan

Away
L
Djúpumýra
GoalVio prediction
42% confidence
Stjarnan(42%)
Most likely exact score1-2
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Vikingur Gota
33%
Draw
26%
Stjarnan
42%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Vikingur Gota
54
Stjarnan
34
Defence
Vikingur Gota
14
Stjarnan
6
Momentum
Vikingur Gota
17
Stjarnan
0
Danger (xG)
Vikingur Gota
1.35
Stjarnan
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 2.57 xG for Vikingur Gota and 1.41 xG for Stjarnan — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Vikingur Gota holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Vikingur Gota's Attack Score (54) exceeds Stjarnan's Defensive Stability (6), and Stjarnan's attack (34) similarly tests Vikingur Gota's defence (14). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.99 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Vikingur Gota's Attack Score (54) vs Stjarnan's Defensive Stability (6) and Stjarnan's attack (34) vs Vikingur Gota's defence (14) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Vikingur Gota)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Stjarnan)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Vikingur Gota)
2.25
avg per match
xG against (Stjarnan)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Vikingur GotaVikingur Gota
DLDDD
StjarnanStjarnan
DWDWL

Probability breakdown

42% confidence
Vikingur Gota33%
Draw26%
Stjarnan42%

Stjarnan leads with 42% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Stjarnan Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-2

Vikingur Gota host Stjarnan in UEFA Europa Conference League. Vikingur Gota have recorded DWDWLD in recent matches while Stjarnan arrive with a run of DWDLWL. These sides have met 2 times recently, averaging 4.0 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.57 expected goals for Vikingur Gota against 1.41 for Stjarnan — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Vikingur Gota's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Vikingur Gota have averaged 2.16 goals per game recently while Stjarnan have managed 1.55. Vikingur Gota carry the sharper attacking edge — a factor the model weighs in its Vikingur Gota win projection.

Why GoalVio backs this

Vikingur Gota are generating a commanding xG advantage — 2.57 projected against 1.41 for Stjarnan. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.16 is the clearest signal in the model that Vikingur Gota are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Vikingur Gota's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Stjarnan defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Vikingur Gota fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • Vikingur Gota have been conceding 1.61 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Head to head

Vikingur Gota 0Draws 11 Stjarnan
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 2/2
16 Jul 2026
Vikingur Gota
D22
Stjarnan
9 Jul 2026
Vikingur Gota
L13
Stjarnan

Recent form

Vikingur Gota

Vikingur Gota

D
vs Stjarnan
16 Jul 2026
22
L
@ Stjarnan
9 Jul 2026
13
D
vs NSI Runavik
29 Jun 2026
33
D
vs KI Klaksvik
19 Jun 2026
22
D
@ HB Torshavn
14 May 2026
11
Stjarnan

Stjarnan

D
@ Vikingur Gota
16 Jul 2026
22
W
vs Vikingur Gota
9 Jul 2026
31
D
@ FH hafnarfjordur
3 Jul 2026
22
W
vs KA Akureyri
28 Jun 2026
31
L
@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar
21 Jun 2026
12

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Vikingur Gota vs Stjarnan?

GoalVio's model predicts Stjarnan to win with 42% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Vikingur Gota vs Stjarnan?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.

Will both teams score in Vikingur Gota vs Stjarnan?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vikingur Gota vs Stjarnan?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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