Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Viking · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-0 (11%), 5-0 (10%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Viking 2-1 Aalesund
Original prediction
Viking
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 73.3% | 85.8% | 12.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.03 | 15.4% | 8.8% | -6.7 pts |
| Away | 8.29 | 11.2% | 5.4% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–011%
- 2.5–010%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Viking
Probability
85.8%
Model confidence
85.8%
Viking has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VikingWDLWW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
AalesundDDLDL
GF 10 · GA 19 · avg 2.00/3.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
VikingAalesund
78.4Attack52.9
66.7Defence19.6
78.4Form29.4
74.4Power36.6
4.50xG0.87