Vihrenvs
Lokomotiv Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Cup · 10/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vihren · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vihren 1-2 Lokomotiv Sofia
Original prediction
Vihren
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 12:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.16 | 21.7% | 39.6% | 17.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 53.1% | 34.5% | -18.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Vihren
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Vihren has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VihrenLWWLW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Lokomotiv SofiaDWWLD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
VihrenLokomotiv Sofia
100.0Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
88.7Power50.0
2.24xG1.37