Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vietnam · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vietnam 4-2 Pakistan
Original prediction
Vietnam
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 83.0% | 56.2% | -26.8 pts |
| Draw | 8.13 | 11.2% | 22.0% | 10.8 pts |
| Away | 15.54 | 5.9% | 21.9% | 16.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Vietnam
Probability
56.2%
Model confidence
56.2%
Vietnam has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VietnamLWDWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PakistanDLWWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
VietnamPakistan
16.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence0.0
50.0Form16.7
47.8Power21.0
2.02xG1.23