Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paredes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vianense 0-0 Paredes, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vianense 3-3 Paredes
Original prediction
Paredes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.46 | 26.3% | 32.1% | 5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.7% | 30.8% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 46.0% | 37.1% | -8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.28 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Projected Score
Vianense 0–0 Paredes
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Paredes
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Paredes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VianenseWWDWL
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ParedesWWWWL
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
VianenseParedes
40.0Attack41.7
66.7Defence75.0
53.3Form75.0
55.3Power67.4
0.96xG0.96