Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leixoes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vianense 1-0 Leixoes
Original prediction
Leixoes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.37 | 16.9% | 35.3% | 18.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.8% | 26.1% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 58.2% | 38.7% | -19.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Leixoes
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Leixoes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VianenseDWWDW
GF 18 · GA 7 · avg 3.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
LeixoesLWDWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
VianenseLeixoes
100.0Attack100.0
83.3Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
89.8Power97.0
1.88xG1.48