Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Våg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Våg 4-2 Odd II
Original prediction
Våg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.5% | 59.9% | 9.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 21.4% | 17.2% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 28.0% | 22.9% | -5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Våg
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
59.9%
Våg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VågWWWWD
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Odd IILWWLD
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
VågOdd II
56.9Attack55.6
45.8Defence25.0
48.6Form40.3
51.4Power41.0
3.02xG1.72