VfL Wolfsburgvs
1. FC Heidenheim
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VfL Wolfsburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 1. FC Heidenheim
Original prediction
VfL Wolfsburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.8% | 51.8% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.12 | 22.6% | 20.6% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 21.5% | 27.6% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
VfL Wolfsburg
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
VfL Wolfsburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 11 · avg 3.40/2.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20