VfL Osnabrückvs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/25/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VfL Osnabrück · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VfL Osnabrück 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Original prediction
VfL Osnabrück
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 43.6% | 38.6% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.8% | 23.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 30.6% | 38.0% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
VfL Osnabrück
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
VfL Osnabrück has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80