VfL Bochumvs
FSV Mainz 05
COMPLETEDGermany · DFB Pokal · 10/27/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FSV Mainz 05 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VfL Bochum 2-0 FSV Mainz 05
Original prediction
FSV Mainz 05
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.94 | 18.8% | 33.2% | 14.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.7% | 25.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 58.4% | 41.8% | -16.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
FSV Mainz 05
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
FSV Mainz 05 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00