VfB Stuttgartvs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/1/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VfB Stuttgart · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VfB Stuttgart 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Original prediction
VfB Stuttgart
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 07:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 73.8% | 57.9% | -15.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.92 | 15.5% | 21.4% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 8.62 | 10.7% | 20.7% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.4–17%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
VfB Stuttgart
Probability
57.9%
Model confidence
57.9%
VfB Stuttgart has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60