VfB Stuttgartvs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/23/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VfB Stuttgart · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Original prediction
VfB Stuttgart
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 70.3% | 59.6% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.72 | 16.6% | 19.8% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 7.24 | 13.1% | 20.6% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
VfB Stuttgart
Probability
59.6%
Model confidence
59.6%
VfB Stuttgart has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80