VfB Stuttgartvs
Borussia Dortmund
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/19/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Borussia Dortmund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund
Original prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 39.0% | 29.1% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 24.9% | 23.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 36.2% | 47.4% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Borussia Dortmund
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Borussia Dortmund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
GF 16 · GA 4 · avg 3.20/0.80