VfB Stuttgartvs
1. FC Köln
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/4/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VfB Stuttgart · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln
Original prediction
VfB Stuttgart
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 63.8% | 39.5% | -24.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.89 | 19.4% | 24.5% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 5.61 | 16.9% | 36.0% | 19.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
VfB Stuttgart
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
VfB Stuttgart has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20