VfB Lübeckvs
St. Pauli II
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Nord · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Pauli II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
VfB Lübeck 4-1 St. Pauli II
Original prediction
St. Pauli II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.8% | 35.8% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 24.8% | 21.3% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.3% | 43.0% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
St. Pauli II
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
St. Pauli II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40