Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Verl · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Verl 2-1 SV Meppen
Original prediction
Verl
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.3% | 38.5% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.1% | 24.5% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 31.6% | 37.1% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Verl
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Verl has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VerlWLLLL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SV MeppenLWWLW
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
VerlSV Meppen
41.7Attack50.0
16.7Defence25.0
25.0Form50.0
31.6Power42.1
1.76xG1.83