Verlvs
Fortuna Köln
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 8/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Verl · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Verl 1-2 Fortuna Köln
Original prediction
Verl
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 51.2% | 39.8% | -11.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.9% | 26.0% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 24.9% | 34.2% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Verl
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Verl has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VerlLLLLW
GF 9 · GA 16 · avg 1.80/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Fortuna KölnDLWWW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
VerlFortuna Köln
50.0Attack16.7
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form16.7
21.5Power36.5
1.51xG1.56