Ventura Countyvs
Tacoma Defiance
COMPLETEDUSA · MLS Next Pro · 9/14/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ventura County · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ventura County 3-0 Tacoma Defiance
Original prediction
Ventura County
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.2% | 50.6% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.1% | 23.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 30.7% | 25.6% | -5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Ventura County
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Ventura County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20