Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Napoli · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Venezia 1-0 Napoli
Original prediction
Napoli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.64 | 20.4% | 17.7% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 24.0% | 21.9% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 55.6% | 60.4% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Napoli
Probability
60.4%
Model confidence
60.4%
Napoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VeneziaLLLLL
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
NapoliLWDWL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VeneziaNapoli
27.8Attack55.6
11.1Defence66.7
0.0Form55.6
19.0Power59.8
0.78xG2.10