GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/5/2025, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Venados FC are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Monarcas are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 16.1-point power-rating edge (53.2 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Monarcas

Probability

40.7%

Model confidence

40.7%

Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Venados FCWDLLL

GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MonarcasWLWDL

GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Venados FCMonarcas
66.7Attack88.9
33.3Defence55.6
58.3Form66.7
53.2Power69.4
1.68xG1.91
View match centre →