GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 4/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Venados FC are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Leones Negros UDG are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (53.2 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Leones Negros UDG holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Leones Negros UDG

Probability

37.1%

Model confidence

37.1%

Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Venados FCDWLLL

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Leones Negros UDGWDLDL

GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Venados FCLeones Negros UDG
66.7Attack77.8
33.3Defence44.4
58.3Form66.7
53.2Power63.5
1.82xG1.85
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