Velez Sarsfieldvs
Tigre
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 9/21/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Velez Sarsfield 0-0 Tigre, with an exact score probability of 32%.
Prediction record
Final result
Velez Sarsfield 3-2 Tigre
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 41.7% | 41.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.91 | 32.2% | 35.9% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 26.1% | 23.2% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Projected Score
Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Tigre
Exact score probability: 32%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
41.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Velez SarsfieldDWDDD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
TigreLLDWL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Velez SarsfieldTigre
38.5Attack33.3
74.4Defence72.0
57.7Form42.7
59.7Power51.1
0.72xG0.46