Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Velden · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Velden 2-1 Treibach
Original prediction
Velden
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.2% | 44.0% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.2% | 26.7% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 26.5% | 29.3% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Velden
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Velden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VeldenDWWDW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TreibachWLDLW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
VeldenTreibach
59.3Attack63.0
74.1Defence66.7
70.4Form63.0
69.0Power63.1
1.37xG1.04