Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vega Real · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Vega Real are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (DWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Jarabacoa are 1W-0D-3L in their last 4 (LLWL), averaging 1.25 scored and 2.75 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 7 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Vega Real hold a 15.1-point power-rating edge (46.9 v 31.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.9% in the Liga Mayor, while Vega Real holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Vega Real
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Vega Real has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.25/2.75