CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
Wednesday, 29 July 202623:00Updated today
Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama

Home
L
vs
23:00
Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin

Away
DW
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Vasco DA Gama(40%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Vasco DA Gama
40%
Draw
28%
Independiente Medellin
32%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Vasco DA Gama
9
Independiente Medellin
34
Defence
Vasco DA Gama
66
Independiente Medellin
82
Momentum
Vasco DA Gama
0
Independiente Medellin
67
Danger (xG)
Vasco DA Gama
0.00
Independiente Medellin
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Vasco DA Gama)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Independiente Medellin)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Vasco DA Gama)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Independiente Medellin)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
LDW
Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
DW

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
Vasco DA Gama40%
Draw28%
Independiente Medellin32%

Vasco DA Gama leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Vasco DA Gama head into this in CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixture in mixed form (L), while Independiente Medellin arrive in mixed form (DW). Vasco DA Gama have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 50% for Independiente Medellin over 2 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Vasco DA Gama (66/100) and Independiente Medellin (82/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Vasco DA Gama have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game at home. Independiente Medellin have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Vasco DA Gama and Independiente Medellin in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Vasco DA Gama to win with 40% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 3999%, Draw 2780%, Independiente Medellin 3221%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama

L
@ Vitoria
16 Jul 2026
01
D
vs Paysandu
13 May 2026
22
W
vs Atletico Paranaense
11 May 2026
10
Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin

D
@ Orsomarso
16 May 2026
11
W
vs Fortaleza FC
11 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?

GoalVio's model predicts Vasco DA Gama to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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