Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vasas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vasas 0-2 Paks
Original prediction
Vasas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.6% | 42.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.5% | 26.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 34.8% | 31.0% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Vasas
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Vasas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VasasLDWWW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PaksLWWWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
VasasPaks
60.0Attack66.7
56.7Defence36.7
50.0Form46.7
55.5Power50.9
2.49xG1.57