Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arlanda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vasalund 1-4 Arlanda
Original prediction
Arlanda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.4% | 26.5% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.5% | 22.9% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.1% | 50.6% | 14.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Arlanda
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Arlanda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VasalundWLDLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ArlandaWWWLL
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VasalundArlanda
66.7Attack77.8
0.0Defence66.7
25.0Form66.7
33.1Power69.2
1.37xG2.68