Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varzim · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Varzim 0-0 Vianense, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Varzim 1-2 Vianense
Original prediction
Varzim
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.6% | 43.9% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.0% | 30.9% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 4.67 | 19.5% | 25.3% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Projected Score
Varzim 0–0 Vianense
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Varzim
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Varzim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VarzimLWWWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VianenseDLWDL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
VarzimVianense
35.5Attack23.8
61.3Defence57.1
41.9Form25.0
47.9Power37.7
1.01xG0.49