Varzimvs
Guimaraes B
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 10/25/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varzim · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Varzim 0-0 Guimaraes B, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Varzim 2-4 Guimaraes B
Original prediction
Varzim
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.6% | 40.2% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.9% | 30.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 28.5% | 29.3% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Projected Score
Varzim 0–0 Guimaraes B
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Varzim
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Varzim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VarzimLLLLW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Guimaraes BLLDDW
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
VarzimGuimaraes B
50.0Attack20.0
61.1Defence80.0
50.0Form33.3
54.8Power46.1
1.10xG0.76