Varteks Varaždinvs
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
COMPLETEDCroatia · Second NL · 10/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hrvatski Dragovoljac · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Varteks Varaždin 3-0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Original prediction
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 09:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.7% | 30.8% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.0% | 27.4% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 37.3% | 41.8% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20