Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varketili · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Varketili are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Guria are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Varketili hold a 6.4-point power-rating edge (82.2 v 75.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.4% in the Liga 3, while Varketili holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Varketili
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
13.4%
Varketili has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60