Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varketili · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Varketili are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Gonio are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Varketili hold a 17.1-point power-rating edge (82.2 v 65.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Liga 3, while Varketili holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Varketili
Probability
53.4%
Model confidence
13.9%
Varketili has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 2 · avg 3.00/0.40
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40