Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Djerv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Varegg are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (LWW), averaging 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded, while Djerv are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Varegg hold a 30.8-point power-rating edge (97.0 v 66.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 6.8% in the 3. Division - Girone 3, while Djerv holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 86% BTTS chance and 89% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Djerv
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
6.8%
Djerv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 2.33/1.33
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60