Vardaracvs
HNK Hajduk Split
COMPLETEDCroatia · Cup · 9/8/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HNK Hajduk Split · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vardarac 0-2 HNK Hajduk Split
Original prediction
HNK Hajduk Split
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 25.00 | 3.7% | 27.2% | 23.5 pts |
| Draw | 16.00 | 5.8% | 20.6% | 14.8 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 90.5% | 52.1% | -38.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-38.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
HNK Hajduk Split
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
HNK Hajduk Split has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/1.50
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80