Vardar Skopjevs
Shkëndija Haraçinë
COMPLETEDMacedonia · First League · 9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vardar Skopje · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vardar Skopje 1-0 Shkëndija Haraçinë, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vardar Skopje 2-0 Shkëndija Haraçinë
Original prediction
Vardar Skopje
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 77.0% | 55.6% | -21.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.67 | 15.9% | 24.8% | 8.8 pts |
| Away | 12.76 | 7.1% | 19.6% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.4 pts
Projected Score
Vardar Skopje 1–0 Shkëndija Haraçinë
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Vardar Skopje
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Vardar Skopje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80