Vaqueros Reynosavs
Mineros de Fresnillo
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga Premier Serie A · 9/27/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vaqueros Reynosa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vaqueros Reynosa 2-1 Mineros de Fresnillo
Original prediction
Vaqueros Reynosa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.5% | 38.7% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.3% | 28.2% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.2% | 33.1% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Vaqueros Reynosa
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Vaqueros Reynosa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.75/1.50
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20