Vaprusvs
Trans Narva
COMPLETEDEstonia · Meistriliiga · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vaprus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vaprus 2-2 Trans Narva
Original prediction
Vaprus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 36.9% | 54.9% | 18.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.7% | 22.4% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.4% | 22.6% | -13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Vaprus
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Vaprus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VaprusLLLWW
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Trans NarvaDLDLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
VaprusTrans Narva
44.8Attack25.3
34.5Defence25.3
39.1Form21.8
41.3Power27.1
2.26xG0.94