Vaprusvs
Nõmme United
COMPLETEDEstonia · Meistriliiga · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vaprus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vaprus 1-0 Nõmme United
Original prediction
Vaprus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.5% | 46.7% | 6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.7% | 20.3% | -5.4 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 33.8% | 32.9% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Vaprus
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Vaprus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VaprusLDLLW
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Nõmme UnitedWLLWL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VaprusNõmme United
45.8Attack56.0
36.1Defence20.0
38.9Form33.3
41.8Power37.2
2.40xG1.94