VaprusvsNõmme United

Vaprus are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Nõmme United are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Vaprus hold a 4.5-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 39.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.7% in the Meistriliiga, while Vaprus holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 78% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.