Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vaprus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vaprus 3-2 Laagri
Original prediction
Vaprus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.0% | 40.0% | 0.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.6% | 23.1% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.4% | 36.9% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Vaprus
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Vaprus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VaprusWLDLL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LaagriLWWLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VaprusLaagri
45.3Attack46.2
38.7Defence44.9
41.3Form39.7
43.3Power44.8
1.61xG1.56