Vanuatuvs
New Caledonia
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/27/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vanuatu · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vanuatu 4-1 New Caledonia
Original prediction
Vanuatu
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 35.4% | 43.1% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.1% | 26.3% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 38.5% | 30.6% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Vanuatu
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Vanuatu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VanuatuDWDWD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
New CaledoniaWLWLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VanuatuNew Caledonia
66.7Attack33.3
50.0Defence50.0
66.7Form50.0
64.8Power47.8
1.81xG1.15