Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shirak · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Van 0-4 Shirak
Original prediction
Shirak
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.0% | 30.5% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.6% | 26.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.4% | 42.7% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Shirak
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Shirak has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VanDLLLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ShirakLWLDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
VanShirak
16.7Attack33.3
16.7Defence58.3
8.3Form33.3
19.2Power44.6
1.11xG1.55