Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gandzasar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Van 2-0 Gandzasar
Original prediction
Gandzasar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.2% | 36.1% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.2% | 25.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.6% | 38.5% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Gandzasar
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Gandzasar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VanLWLLD
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GandzasarLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 14 · avg 0.40/2.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
VanGandzasar
16.7Attack33.3
12.5Defence16.7
16.7Form12.5
20.6Power24.3
1.50xG1.50