Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ararat · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Van 2-1 Ararat
Original prediction
Ararat
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 36.1% | 28.7% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.8% | 27.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.1% | 44.2% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Ararat
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Ararat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VanLWLWL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AraratDDLWW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VanArarat
26.7Attack30.0
13.3Defence46.7
23.3Form36.7
25.4Power40.3
0.89xG1.39