Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Van · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Van are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (DWL), averaging 0.33 scored and 0.33 conceded, while Ararat are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (WDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 6 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Ararat hold a 2.2-point power-rating edge (14.2 v 16.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.2% in the Premier League, while Van holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Van
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Van has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 0.33/0.33
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/1.33