Valur Reykjavikvs
Thor Akureyri
COMPLETEDIceland · Úrvalsdeild · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valur Reykjavik · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valur Reykjavik 4-1 Thor Akureyri
Original prediction
Valur Reykjavik
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.4% | 69.6% | 10.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 20.4% | 15.6% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 4.47 | 20.2% | 14.9% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–07%
Predicted outcome
Valur Reykjavik
Probability
69.6%
Model confidence
69.6%
Valur Reykjavik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60