Valur Reykjavikvs
KA Akureyri
COMPLETEDIceland · Úrvalsdeild · 10/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valur Reykjavik · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valur Reykjavik 4-1 KA Akureyri
Original prediction
Valur Reykjavik
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.1% | 50.6% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 22.9% | 18.4% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 34.9% | 31.0% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Valur Reykjavik
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Valur Reykjavik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20