Valur Reykjavikvs
FH hafnarfjordur
COMPLETEDIceland · Úrvalsdeild · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valur Reykjavik · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valur Reykjavik 3-5 FH hafnarfjordur
Original prediction
Valur Reykjavik
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.4% | 42.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.5% | 25.4% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.2% | 32.4% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Valur Reykjavik
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Valur Reykjavik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00