Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forge · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Valour are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Forge are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Forge hold a 30.9-point power-rating edge (40.8 v 71.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.4% in the Canadian Premier League, while Forge holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Forge
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Forge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80